Global Autonomous Vehicle Sales to Reach 33M by 2040
Automakers should be able to increase global sales of fully autonomous vehicles to 33 million by 2040 from 51,000 in 2021 — the first year of significant volume, according to a forecast from IHS Markit.
Automakers should be able to increase global sales of fully autonomous vehicles to 33 million by 2040 from 51,000 in 2021 — the first year of significant volume, according to a forecast from IHS Markit.
There should be 7.4 million autonomous vehicles operating in the U.S. in 2040, the forecast found.
This dynamic growth is expected to be enabled by ride hailing and other mobility services, according to the forecast. The U.S. will lead the world in early adoption and initial deployment of the vehicles, which could arrive as early as 2019. Europe and China are expected to add considerable volume starting in 2021.
"The first autonomous vehicle volumes — beyond retrofit test vehicles — will arrive in 2019 through driverless mobility services," said Egil Juliussen, director of automotive technology research at IHS Markit. "Volumes will surpass 51,000 units in 2021 when personally owned autonomous cars reach individual buyers for the first time, and IHS Markit forecasts estimate nearly 1 million units will be sold in 2025 across shared fleets and individually owned cars."
The units will be fully autonomous Level 4 or Level 5 vehicles based on the standard set by the Society of Automotive Engineers.
In the coming years, transportation will be driven by on-demand services rather than the individual ownership model and the industry will provide vehicles based on usage per distance or time rather than unit sales, according to the firm.
General Motors, Waymo, and Uber are expected to contribute significantly to mobility fleet volumes as early as 2019.
Originally posted on F&I and Showroom
More Dealer Ops

Ladies and Gentlemen, This Is a Dealership: Why the Fundamentals Still Decide Who Wins
A teaching moment by a legendary football coach happens to apply perfectly in the auto retail space. Learn what it is and how to use it to your store’s advantage.
Read More →
Timing the Market Can Hurt Long-Term Program Performance
For dealer-owned reinsurance entities, avoiding volatility entirely can mean falling behind inflation and missing market rebounds that drive long term surplus growth. Missing just a handful of strong market days can materially impact cumulative returns—an important reminder for long horizon trust and investment strategies.
Read More →
Dealer Ads and the FTC
The agency has made it clear in recent enforcement actions and warnings, in auto retail and other industries, that advertised prices must include all nonoptional costs to the consumer.
Read More →
Used Autos Supply Dwindles
The March shopping surge, despite high prices, cut into inventory by the most since the thick of the pandemic, Cox Automotive analysts calculated.
Read More →
Managing Risk Effectively Through Changing Times
The variables influencing risk pricing have changed significantly over the past five years. Being proactive and responsive to emerging trends is not optional but essential.
Read More →
Survey Reveals What Won't Fix What's Breaking Car Sales
AutoPayPlus says extra-long auto loans are trapping consumers and threatening the dealer trade-in cycle, and that the industry is leveraging the wrong tools to combat high MSRPs.
Read More →
IA American Appoints Two Execs
Senior vice presidents of the company's agent and dealer channels chosen to support general agents and help auto dealers with sales and performance.
Read More →
Cox Automotive Acquires Inspection Firm
Full ownership of Alliance Inspection Management, or AiM, meant to unlock growth for Manheim inspection capabilities
Read More →
Assurant Expands Partnership With Holman
Extended collaboration delivers training, products and performance development to 30 newly acquired Holman dealerships
Read More →
Franchises, Throughput Down in First Half
A handful of states see franchise growth through June, while EV sales per store boost overall business in U.S.
Read More →