Autonomously controlled vehicles proliferating roads won’t be a reality for at least another decade, a new report says.
S&P Global Mobility’s forecast shows that ultimately, self-driving vehicles and what it calls mobility-on-demand, will be a reality. Widespread use, though, won’t happen for a while.
Expectations for the technology haven’t yet been realized, it says, and in the next 10 years will largely be limited to fleet robotaxis in some urban areas and today’s driver-assist systems that allow only limited autonomy as the driver stays in active control.
For now, vehicles that operate independently won’t be “publicly available before 2035," the report says, “and probably for some time after that," said associate director of S&P’s autonomy practice, Jeremy Carlson in a press release.
About five years ago, the thinking was that the transition would happen much quicker, as have so many other technological advances that have many people’s heads spinning at times to keep up with all the changes.
“S&P Global Mobility presents a more realistic outlook amid this moderated pace of progress while also publishing new data on the intersection of autonomy and mobility-as-a-service.”
The report says that nearer-term development will focus on automated rather than autonomous. Automakers will achieve at least 31% of global new-vehicle sales of models with levels 2-plus and 3 by 2035 – with the driver supervising but hands off the steering wheel or disengaging in specific situations à la Drive Pilot by Mercedes, it says.
“Their functionality also complements driving today rather than fully replacing the driver, making consumer adoption less of a challenge,” Carlson says. “The next several years of wider deployment across brands and vehicle platforms will be a boon for automakers selling these optional features as well as suppliers who continue to build scale and a strong foundation for the future.”
It predicts that less than 6% of light vehicles sold in 2035 will have level-four functioning, with advanced parking features. It said that autonomous fleet vehicles operating today in cities like San Francisco can be “confounded by complex traffic scenarios,” referring to a recent traffic jam in the City by the Bay caused by Waymo taxis.
