June Auto Sales Forecast Cloudy
High prices and interest rates, paired with flat incentives, dampen demand.

Average monthly finance payments look to hit $747 this month, up 3% and a record for June.
Pexels/InstaWalli
When a mix of unusual factors has been sifted, retail new-vehicle demand has proven to be muted this month.
The preliminary results from a J.D.Power-GlobalData forecast come as no surprise to an industry in limbo as the U.S. awaits ultimate outcomes of frequently shifting trade policy.
Many consumers, already strapped with inflated vehicle prices and still-high interest rates, continue to hold off on vehicle purchases. Those pulling the trigger are paying more amid record finance payments.
Though June retail sales are up 7% year-over-year to a projected one million units, last June’s numbers took about an 85,000-unit hit due to CDK Global’s auto dealer software outage from a pair of cyberattacks, J.D. Power said.
Meanwhile, new-vehicle sales surged back in March and April by an estimated 173,000 units combined as consumers rushed to beat trade tariff price inflation, now-retreated demand that’s deflated June deliveries.
Further dampening sales are stagnant incentives. Though the purchase perks are up on their face by 2% year-over-year and 4% over May to a projected average of $2,727 per vehicle, they’re essentially flat at 5% of the average manufacturer’s suggested retail price, according to the forecast. That’s down from 6% in January.
The average transaction price for the month is an estimated $46,233, up 3% year-over-year. Meanwhile, average monthly finance payments look to hit $747, also up 3% and a record for June, J.D. Power said. Loans exceeding 84 months, or seven years, are on track to make up 12% of financed June sales, up three percentage points.
Before the Trump administration started raising import tariffs in March, automaker incentives were expected to rise this year, J.D. Power said. Instead, the companies are pulling back in reaction to the tariffs while many hold off on sticker price spikes.
“This reflects the cost-pressure tariffs are creating for manufacturers, but it is also causing some shoppers looking for affordable vehicles to remain on the sidelines,” said president of J.D. Power’s Data and Analytics Division Thomas King.
LEARN MORE: How Your Dealership Can Weather This Economic Uncertainty
More Industry

Longtime Ford Store Changes Hands
The Virginia dealership joins a small area automotive group in a one-dealership transaction, moving from one family franchisee to another.
Read More →
Auto Loan Delinquency Rates Stabilize
Auto loans are a main driver of nonmortgage consumer debt, but delinquency rates stabilized in the second quarter across all credit risk tiers.
Read More →
ASE Seeks Accurate Technician Pay, Benefits Data
New free membership trial removes cost barrier for dealerships and shops willing to contribute anonymous information to the industry data exchange.
Read More →
No Longer Worth the Price?
Mass-market auto brands are gaining ground on luxury competitors with what used to be premium features, helped along by the pressure of high vehicle prices dogging budget-conscious shoppers.
Read More →
Dealer Debrief: Colorful Cars & BMW Backlash
In this week's debrief, host Lauren Lawrence discusses the first Slate vehicles and the BMW x Spider-Man collab that has sparked some privacy concerns.
Read More →
Georgia Auto Group to Be Sold
Major U.S. player Group 1 signed an agreement to purchase the Atlanta-area stores across multiple brands from a longtime market leader.
Read More →
Dealer Debrief: Four-Figure Loan Payments
In this week's debrief, host Lauren Lawrence discusses the rise in $1,000-plus loan payments and the factors affecting the increase.
Read More →
July Auto Sales Simmer
Deliveries were up modestly from a year ago despite still-high prices as OEMs offered more incentives and loan rates eased somewhat.
Read More →
Toyota Financial Services Adds to HQ
The subsidiary says the new Texas facility is designed to foster collaboration and innovation with the aim of future growth.
Read More →
Four-Figure Loan Payments on the Rise
A LendingTree analysis found that location, age and credit score play a role in the rising amount of auto loan borrowers who make monthly payments of $1,000 or more.
Read More →
