Specialty Market Insights
Motorcycle & Powersports Market Update
“Powersports values are declining across the board with one exception as we head into the fall. This year has seen the gradual return of traditional seasonal valuation patterns, though prices are still significantly elevated versus historical levels. This month is no different as most major segments are down one to two percent. The only exception is the Domestic Cruiser segment, up half a percent, and the Street bikes, which saw a negligible decline.”– Scott Yarbrough, Senior Analyst, Motorcycle & Powersports
August to September Average Segment Change in Value
The biggest concern right now for the Powersports market is the overall health of the economy. Recently we have seen some good news as unemployment continues to be at historic lows, gas prices are coming down, and inflation appears to be easing a bit. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s meeting later this month to see how high they raise rates this month. So far, rising rates have not significantly impacted retail powersports sales, but at some point, the continued rate increases will start to have a cooling off effect. The supply of new units continues to improve as manufacturers are finally ironing out the majority of their remaining supply-chain issues.
Segment Spotlights & Industry News
Cruiser Segment Performance
The biggest news for the Cruisers is the continued strength of the domestic V-Twins, which are up once again this month. These bikes have outperformed their metric counterparts for most of the year so far. Overall though, it is still evident that prices have not risen as much this summer as last year, as OEMs are gradually bringing full production capacity back online and straightening out their remaining supply-chain issues.
Off-Road Segment Performance
The Off-Road segment shows a substantial change in performance from this year to last. Four out of six months during the same period last year, prices for Dirt Bikes rose by significant amounts, while in four out of six months this year prices have declined or showed smaller increases. This segment was one of the biggest winners during the initial phases of the coronavirus pandemic buying spree, but has been returning to more normal levels recently.
- Adding to the existing supply-chain issues, BRP suffered a cyberattack that disrupted production during August according to industry reports. BRP says they will make up for lost production and expect to see no long-term changes to their year-end financial projections.
- Rollick and eBay Motors have entered into a partnership to enable Rollick’s dealers to easily list powersports, RV, and boat inventory for sale on eBay Motors’ platform. This integration extends beyond ad listings to include finance applications, special offers, and trade-in estimations on dealer landing pages. This partnership is the result of a successful six-month pilot program the two companies recently concluded.
- A slim majority (56%) of Powersports dealers report their August business performance was either on plan, or above plan, a ten-point decrease from July, according to a recent Powersports Business article. This is yet another sign the overall market continues to slow down.
Recreational Vehicles Market Update
“The average sales prices for motor homes and towables sold at wholesale auctions increased last month, the second consecutive month where prices rose across the board. Some factors which played a role in this increase were the age of the units, the quantity that were run through the lanes, the relative condition of the units, and the mix of makes and models that were offered.”Eric Lawrence, Principal Analyst, Specialty Markets
Wholesale RV Values Increase As Volume Decreases
For Motorhomes (including Class A, B, and C):
- The average selling price was $79,668, up $6,053 (8.2%) from the previous month.
- One year ago, the average selling price was $75,489.
- Auction volume was down 22.3% from the previous month.
- The average model year was 2009.
For Towables (including Travel Trailers and Fifth Wheels):
- The average selling price was $21,221, up $964 (4.7%) from the previous month.
- One year ago, the average selling price was $24,140.
- Auction volume was down 0.8% from the previous month.
- The average model year was 2017.
According to the RVIA, the total number of RVs shipped in July was 29,647, a decrease of 33.4% from July 2021. Towables totaled 25,355 units (19,355 TT / 4,972 FW) and Motorhomes accounted for 4,292. Class B motorhomes (Van Camper) ended the month with 1,197 shipped, Class A’s (Conventional) totaled 1,111, and Class C’s (Mini) finished with 1,984. Truck Campers came in at 499, Folding Camping Trailers reached 529, and Park Models totaled 380.
- AAA announced that the average price of a gallon of gasoline dropped below $4 for the first time in 5 months.
- Statistical Surveys, Inc. reported that there were 46,821 RV registrations in June 2022, down 32% from 2021.
- Peer to peer RV rental site Outdoorsy reports that Labor Day bookings were up from last year.
- Winnebago Industries raised their quarterly dividend to $0.27, an increase of 50%.
- RVIA projects 2022 total RV shipments to be 498,800, a drop of 17% from 2021.
- Tiffin Motorhomes is celebrating its 50th Anniversary.
- Kampgrounds of America (KOA) reported that 25 million households camped over the Labor Day weekend.
Collectible Cars Market Update
“Monterey car week wrapped a couple of weeks ago and the auction results were the best ever, with over $470 million in total sales. RM Sotheby’s was the top grossing auction, with nearly $240 million in sales, followed by Gooding with $110 million, Broad Arrow with $55 million, Mecum with $52 million, and Bonhams with $29 million. It’s safe to say that the market for high end collectible cars is healthy.”– Eric Lawrence, Principal Analyst, Specialty Markets
- RM Sotheby’s Monterey auction was very successful, with nearly $240 million in sales over three days and a 95% sell through rate. In fact, it set a record for the highest grossing automotive auction ever held and their total was also higher than the rest of the Monterey auctions combined. Several new world records were set, with 52 vehicles selling for over $1,000,000. Against the backdrop of these results, it comes as no surprise that this auction recorded the most expensive sale of the week, a 1955 Ferrari 410 Sport Spider by Scaglietti, which brought $22 million.
- Mecum continued an excellent 2022 with their Monterey Daytime Auction, held over three days at the scenic Del Monte Golf Course. Total sales were over $52 million and 297 vehicles changed hands, with twelve of them achieving seven figure results. Three of the top ten selling cars were Ferraris, and the rest included a variety of exotics, full classics, and even a muscle car. Paul Walker’s 1973 Porsche 911 Carrera RS sold for over a million dollars, and a 2001 Nissan GT-R he drove in “Fast and Furious” sold for a very strong $577,000.
- Broad Arrow, a new auction company made up of industry veterans, held their first ever auction at the Monterey Jet Center in conjunction with the automotive lifestyle event Motorlux. They are off to a great start, with over $55 million in total sales and a sell through rate of 88%. Later model supercars were very well represented here, and 14 new world records were set. One of the highlights of the auction was Sean Connery’s personal Aston Martin DB5, similar to the one he drove as James Bond, which also included a ride with Jackie Stewart. It brought $2,425,000.
Notable Recent Auction Sales Include:
- 1937 Mercedes-Benz 540 K Special Roadster $9,905,000 (RM Sotheby’s)
- 1954 Fiat 8V Berlinetta $555,000 (RM Sotheby’s)
- 1924 Hispano-Suiza Tulipwood Torpedo $9,245,000 (RM Sotheby’s)
- 1995 Ferrari F50 $5,175,000 (Broad Arrow)
- 1971 Mercedes-Benz 600 Landaulet $2,590,000 (Broad Arrow)
- 2015 Porsche 918 Spider Weissach $1,930,000 (Broad Arrow)
- 1958 Ferrari 250 GT Tour de France Berlinetta $2,860,000 (Mecum)
- 1936 Duesenberg Model J Rollston Convertible $2,695,000 (Mecum)
- 1971 Plymouth ‘Cuda Convertible 440-6v $1,100,000 (Mecum)
- 2014 Bugatti Veyron 16.4 Grand Sport Vitesse $2,640,000 (Mecum)
- 1924 Hispano-Suiza Torpedo Courtesy of RM Sotheby’s
The Vintage Pickup Truck segment was originally limited to domestic full-size pickups, but has recently expanded to include collectible SUVs, many of which were constructed on a modified truck chassis. A few examples within this segment are the Ford, Chevrolet/GMC, and Dodge pickups built from the mid-1940s up through the early 1970s, Jeep CJs, Toyota Land Cruiser FJs, International Scouts, early Range Rovers, and first-generation Chevrolet Blazers and Ford Broncos. Pickups have been on a run for the better part of a decade, and SUVs have been on fire for the past two or three years, with values doubling or sometimes tripling during that time frame. During the past year, many Vintage Pickups and SUVs have increased anywhere from 20 – 25%.
Most of the collectible vehicle market segments we track increased in value a little bit during the past month, including Pony Cars, Post War American Classics, European/Asian Sports Cars, and Classic Trucks & SUVs. The only one to decline was the Vintage Muscle Car segment, and that was by less than three hundredth of a percent. The collectible market has been very strong for over a year now, and all of the recent auctions have produced strong results. The economy is still a big question mark. Some indicators are pointing up, some are pointing down, and the only thing the economists can agree on is that they don’t agree with each other. As of late early September, the stock market has rebounded a bit, but there is no real consensus within the industry on what that will do to collectible car values. Some say that prospective buyers will be afraid to spend money in an uncertain economic environment, and others say that money will flow into tangible assets that seem to offer a safe haven from the unpredictable stock market. There are several more physical auctions coming up before the end of the year, and online auctions daily, and we’ll be watching them all closely to see which direction the market is heading.
Medium and Heavy-Duty Truck & Commercial Trailer Market Update
Commercial Truck Market Update
“Medium and Heavy-Duty Truck and Commercial Trailer values continue to fall as shipments of new units improves each month. We have noticed an increase in the number of units available at auction and online, which is having a direct impact on transaction prices. As we enter the final quarter of 2022, we expect to see continued softening in used prices as new truck shipments are expected to remain consistent for the remainder of the year.”– Josh Giles, Principal Automotive Analyst
- Above we see the overall weighted monthly value adjustments for Medium-Duty units in classes 3 through 6. (2019-2020)
- Heading into September, late model, Medium Duty truck values fell an overall weighted average of -4.1% ($2,764).
- Overall, values for medium duty units rose 39.6% from September of 2020 to April of 2022.
- Since April, Classes 4-6 began falling towards the end of March of this year. New truck deliveries are improving allowing fleets to release some of their aging fleet to the secondary market resulting in a combined drop of -12.9% ($8,641).
- We will likely continue seeing a bit of softening in values over the next couple of months as new trucks slowly help release some of the air in the market.
- Since April of this year, Class 4 trucks have fallen a combined -6.25% and Class 5 trucks have fallen a combined -13.97%.
- Since April of this year, Class 6 trucks have fallen a combined -11.74% and Class 7 trucks have fallen a combined -13.13% since April.
Heavy-Duty Trucks and Tractors
- The chart above illustrates the average monthly adjustments for Heavy-Duty Trucks and Road Tractors within classes 7 and 8 (2019-2020).
- Since May of this year, Construction/Vocational Units dropped a combined -2.7% ($-3,942).
- Since May of this year, Regional Tractors dropped a combined -12.5% ($-13,954).
- Since May of this year, Over-the-Road Tractors dropped a combined -11.8% ($14,088).
- Despite the recent drops in values, truck prices are still much higher than they should be. Prior to May of this year, Construction/Vocational units increased 34.8% ($37,925), Regional Tractors increased 41.1% ($33,713), and Over-the-Road Tractors increased 37.0% ($31,229).
Commercial Trailer Market Update
- Commercial Trailer values dropped heading into July as demand slowed and new inventory is delivered.
- Dry Van values (2017-2021) fell 14.3% heading into the third quarter of the year.
- Dump Trailers values (2017-2021) were relatively flat heading into July.
- Refrigerated Van values (2017-2021) fell 6.3% heading into July.
- Steel Flatbed values (2017-2021) were flat heading into July.
- We expect to see further deprecation in commercial trailers as new inventory becomes available.