June Auto Sales Forecast Cloudy

When a mix of unusual factors has been sifted, retail new-vehicle demand has proven to be muted this month.

The preliminary results from a J.D.Power-GlobalData forecast come as no surprise to an industry in limbo as the U.S. awaits ultimate outcomes of frequently shifting trade policy. 

Many consumers, already strapped with inflated vehicle prices and still-high interest rates, continue to hold off on vehicle purchases. Those pulling the trigger are paying more amid record finance payments.

Though June retail sales are up 7% year-over-year to a projected one million units, last June’s numbers took about an 85,000-unit hit due to CDK Global’s auto dealer software outage from a pair of cyberattacks, J.D. Power said.

Meanwhile, new-vehicle sales surged back in March and April by an estimated 173,000 units combined as consumers rushed to beat trade tariff price inflation, now-retreated demand that’s deflated June deliveries.

Further dampening sales are stagnant incentives. Though the purchase perks are up on their face by 2% year-over-year and 4% over May to a projected average of $2,727 per vehicle, they’re essentially flat at 5% of the average manufacturer’s suggested retail price, according to the forecast. That’s down from 6% in January.

The average transaction price for the month is an estimated $46,233, up 3% year-over-year. Meanwhile, average monthly finance payments look to hit $747, also up 3% and a record for June, J.D. Power said. Loans exceeding 84 months, or seven years, are on track to make up 12% of financed June sales, up three percentage points.

Before the Trump administration started raising import tariffs in March, automaker incentives were expected to rise this year, J.D. Power said. Instead, the companies are pulling back in reaction to the tariffs while many hold off on sticker price spikes.

“This reflects the cost-pressure tariffs are creating for manufacturers, but it is also causing some shoppers looking for affordable vehicles to remain on the sidelines,” said president of J.D. Power’s Data and Analytics Division Thomas King.

LEARN MORE: How Your Dealership Can Weather This Economic Uncertainty