The ripple effects of last year’s federal tariff hikes and electric-vehicle incentive pullback are still being felt this year as June sales are forecast to be up from a 2025 summer trough.        

The JD Power projection has retail new-vehicle deliveries up about 3% year-over-year to 1.1 million units and an annualized rate of 13.7 million, or a 500,000-unit increase. 

Last year’s vehicle sales spike inspired by consumers getting ahead of trade tariff inflation subsided by May, pointed out JD Power OEM solutions president Thomas King. This month’s forecast bump therefore simply reflects normalization of June business from that anomaly. 

Consumer affordability pressures are still very much in play as interest rates and car prices remain high, though the former have slightly subsided, JD Power said.  

Automakers have been offering more discounts to help shore up demand, average incentives per vehicle at a little more than $3,200, up 13% year-over-year, though part of that replaces incentive declines last year as brands worked to balance tariff costs, King said. 

Meanwhile, auto consumers have been agreeing to longer loan terms to afford buying. JD Power calculated that about 14% of new-vehicle loans this month have been 84 months or longer. 

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