Used-Vehicle Value Volatility Shows Signs of Calming

Used-vehicle values took a roller-coaster ride in the first half of the year, ending down more than 10% year-over-year but stable in June as inventory rebalances, Cox Automotive says.

Meanwhile, used-vehicle retail sales were also down but not as much as they were in the spring.

“The wholesale market story for the first half of 2023 can be summed up in one word: volatile,” said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke.

“The result, however, is not unexpected. Larger upswings during the first quarter and a downward trajectory that began in the second half of March have brought us to roughly where we expected to be at this point in the year. The good news is that the worst of this is likely behind us. Used retail sales held steady in June and are showing signs of strengthening – inventory levels are generally balanced between supply and demand.”

Cox’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell to 215.1 in June and was down 10.3% year-over-year for the first half of the year.

Wholesale used-vehicle prices fell 4.2% in June, a record for the month, Cox said, and influenced in part by seasonal factors, among them multiple holiday weekends. The unadjusted average price was down 10% year-over-year.

Sales fell an estimated 6% year-over-year in June, which Cox says is the best result since March.

Days’ supply at the end of June was estimated to be 45, seven days fewer year-over-year.

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