2024 Auto Forecast Steady

An early 2024 auto industry forecast puts new-car sales on a steady growth pace as opposing market pressures are expected to prevent extremes in one direction or the other.

The Edmunds forecast puts new-vehicle sales at 15.7 million in the new year, up 1% from its 2023 estimated total. It expects electric-vehicle market share will also get a bump, from about 7% this year to 8%.

Though increased inventory and incentives are creating more of a buyer’s market for the first time since the pandemic, elevated interest rates should temper demand, Edmunds said. The question is whether a new, postpandemic normal will prevail.

“Automakers specifically will weigh one other key consideration in 2024: Are they satisfied with this newly established supply-demand equilibrium, or are they willing and able to push sales volumes closer to prepandemic norms?" said Head of Insights Jessica Caldwell in Edmunds’ forecast.

Edmunds’ other expectations for 2024 include:

• The end of pandemic-era price climbs as inventories grow.
• More affordable models still having limited availability. It says those under $50,000 are selling faster – 30 days versus 47 for more expensive vehicles.
• 2023 models selling out fast because many brands have released 2024 models early and “aggressively.”
• Continued hybrid sales growth as EV growth still proves slower than earlier expected. Edmunds said hybrids' market share rose to about 10% in November, up 99% year-over-year, while EV market share rose 25%.
• More brand-loyalty disruption by EVs as rival brands figure largely among trade-ins. In 2023, it said 13% of trade-ins for mainstream EVs were luxury vehicles.

DIG DEEPER: Average New-Vehicle Prices Fall