U.S. electric-vehicle sales, it should come as no surprise, haven’t met expectations so far this year.

After a lackluster first half of 2024, J.D. Power has revised its forecast down from earlier expectations for the purely electric vehicles known as battery-electric.

As the year started, the company forecasted EV market share reaching 12% this year, but after seven months of sales, it adjusted its outlook to 9%, or 1.2 million units.

Even with slower growth than formerly expected, J.D. Power sees EV sales achieving a significant 36% of retail sales by 2030 and a majority of 58% by 2035. Through July of this year, it calculates purely electric-vehicle sales up 35,000 units year-over-year.

Though affordability is less of an issue with EVs than it has been – J.D. Power says affordability along with availability of accessible models improved for two straight months and that many EVs are more affordable than gas-powered equivalent models – other roadblocks are still in the way. A principal one is charging availability, as public infrastructure can be spotty and sometimes unreliable. It also counts competition from hybrids as an obstacle.

The forecaster anticipates that returned leased EVs – leasing makes up a majority of EV sales due to federal tax breaks for leases – will spark a surge in new EV transactions, as it says 94% of batter-electric consumers indicate likeliness to consider another BEV as their next model.

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