Edmunds analysts say it keeps getting harder for shoppers to afford a new car as prices continue to rise and interest rates remain elevated.
Edmunds says the average APR for a U.S. new-vehicle loan was 6.36% in March, putting dealers and consumers on the cusp of a ‘dramatic shift’ toward the used-car market.
The U.S. new-vehicle sales forecast improved to 17.42 million units in March, but sales fell 3.1% year-over-year against slowing demand fueled by higher interest rates, prices, and payments and reduced incentive spending.
With September in the books, Edmunds reported this week that interest rates have stayed above 5% for eight months in a row and now mirror levels not seen since before the Great Recession.
Two years ago, zero percent finance deals accounted for 14.6% of transactions. Last month, they only accounted for 7.4%. Edmunds analysts point to higher interest rates as one of the reasons for the scarcity in zero percent finance deals in August.
June’s annual percentage rate of 5.82% marked a 17% increase since January 2018. Add rising rates to a virtually saturated U.S. market, record-high vehicle prices, and historically high numbers of people who owe more than their cars are worth, and the stage is set for a market contraction, the firm said.
Although shoppers continue to flock toward pricier trucks and SUVs, steadily rising gas prices are beginning to stimulate consumer demand and increase residual values for smaller vehicles.
Edmunds analysts say the industry is beginning to see the trickle-down effect from the rate increases happening at the federal level. February's annual percentage rate on new finance vehicles was expected to average 5.2%, up from 4.9% in the year-ago period.
Thanks to a tight supply of late-model used vehicles, values don’t dramatically drop once the odometer crosses six figures, according to a new report from vehicle information site.
Car buyers are putting down $504 more on a new-vehicle purchase than they did five years ago. But with buyers purchasing pricier cars and interest rates on the rise, something has to give, Edmunds.com analysis said.
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