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J.D. Power and LMC Automotive analysts predict that, despite a slow start to 2019 and a short September, third-quarter new-vehicle sales will rebound on the strength of a 6% increase in factory incentive spending.
Retail sales for the first half of 2018 are expected to be the weakest since 2014, but record transaction prices have consumers on pace to spend nearly $5 billion more on new-vehicle purchases during the period compared to a year ago.
Average incentive spending in February is poised to fall for the first time since 2013 due to lower spending by Domestic manufacturers on trucks and SUVs. The two firms also project a 400,000-unit decrease in the SAAR and a 3% decline in retail sales.
Not even record incentive spending for the month is expected to keep May retail sales on pace with a year ago, according to the two firms.
April retail sales are expected to reach 1.17 million thanks to record incentive spending. However, average days to turn continues to rise, with nearly 30% of vehicles sold so far in 2017 having sat on dealer lots more than 90 days.
Ford's decision to idle production of its F-150 pickup last week has followed several months of slowing demand in retail and fleet channels and may point to a larger trend in pickup sales.
For the fifth time in seven months, J.D. Power and LMC Automotive are predicting a year-over-year decline in new-vehicle retail sales for September. But officials with both firms said the numbers don't point to significant weakness or risk, but the firm does see challenges ahead.
LMC Automotive has revised its forecast for U.S. auto sales for the 2016-2023 periods. The company expects nearly 250,000 fewer units will be sold each year during that timeframe, with a larger reduction occurring between 2016 and 2017.
J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said this week that consumers are on pace to spend more than $32 billion on new vehicles this month, a first for the month of February. The two firms noted, however, that their projected 13.9 million retail SAAR is the lowest level since June and well below the 15.3 million pace set last September.
The two firms expect January total light-vehicle sales to total 1.1 million units, while the January SAAR is expected to have reached 16.8 million units. LMC Automotive said its sales forecast for 2016 remains at 17.8 million units.